A state mandate to reduce tailpipe emissions in the Portland region is looking attainable – if state leaders can help Metro find the money to make it happen.
That was the message Tuesday as the Metro Council got its first look at the results of months of study of the region's tailpipe emissions and projections of those emissions in the future.
State law requires Metro to come up with a plan to curb the region's tailpipe emissions by 20 percent in the next 22 years. That plan must be completed by the end of next year.
To narrow their ongoing study of tailpipe emissions, planners at Metro looked at three scenarios – a Portland region continuing on its present path, a Portland region sticking to its long-term plans and a Portland region implementing new ways to curb emissions.
The present path, with stalled investment in infrastructure and more outward expansion of the urban growth boundary, showed only a 12 percent decrease in carbon emissions by 2035.
But if infrastructure investment were to increase, transit service were restored, the gas tax was raised to planned levels and other existing plans were implemented, the region could see a 24 percent decrease in tailpipe emissions – beyond the state's 20 percent target.
Building that plan, though, requires money and political will. All of the plans studied in that 24 percent reduction scenario are already on the books, approved by cities, counties, service districts and Metro.
Those plans "aren't something new that’s being implemented or put upon people," said Metro Councilor Craig Dirksen. "This is achieving the goals we've already said we all have."
Some of those plans, though, are already collecting dust on shelves. And projects that look more likely aren't yet on the books.
"The plans of record include a streetcar to Lake Oswego, which we know is not going to be happening," Dirksen said. By contrast, the 24 percent reduction scenario "does not include the Southwest Corridor because that's not yet a plan of record."
Similarly, the plans in the 24 percent reduction scenario envision more high capacity transit in Clackamas County, which Metro Councilor Shirley Craddick pointed out as unlikely given the opposition rail transit faces from Clackamas County leaders.
Many of the plans in Scenario B, the 24 percent reduction scenario, cost money. That includes an increase in commuter incentives to employers, adding 81 new miles of freeway and arterial lanes and a 50 percent increase in the share of short trips taken by bicycle. Scenario B also has more incentives for compact housing development and more funding for infrastructure for jobs.
It also includes a penny-a-year increase in the gas tax and an increase in payroll tax to pay for more transit.
"If we're going to achieve this, we're going to ask for support to work with us for funding to help get this work done," Craddick said. "It's more than just, 'Do you support what we're doing here,' but 'Will you work with us and agree with us on figuring out some way to find funding?'"
With the mandate for dropping emissions coming from Salem, Metro Council President Tom Hughes said the decision on moving forward should come from the Legislature.
"You either help us or relieve us from the burden," Hughes said. "We have a plan that gets us there – with your help."
"Hopefully, receiving this report and learning what it would take to achieve that will give them the political will to make the changes, to get the funding we would need, to do their part to achieve this," followed Dirksen.
A third scenario was even more ambitious, reaching a 36 percent reduction in tailpipe emissions. But it envisions a world in which the gas tax is largely replaced by carbon and per-mile driving fees, streetcar lines stretch all over Portland and bus service in the region is more than doubled.
There's more study to be done for the Climate Smart project. Project manager Kim Ellis said she expects to come back to the council in about a month with a look at how much the scenarios could cost, how they'd affect public health and how equitable they'd end up being.
That leads to a busy 2014, with a goal of the Metro Council recommending a preferred plan by December 2014.
"We have more work to do," Ellis said, "but the target is attainable."
Note: An earlier version of this story incorrectly identified the amount of new freeway lanes that the Regional Transportation Plan calls for. The plan calls for 81 new miles of freeway and arterial lanes. This version has been corrected.