The gas-sipping car. It's been a dream of some consumers, a mandate from politicians for decades, and could be part of efforts to address climate change in the Portland region and beyond. But just how far can a gallon of gas go? That's a question facing auto industry experts – and regional planners – as they try to gaze into the crystal ball of fuel efficiency.
Climate Futures series
As Metro's planning staff looks at ways to address a state mandate to reduce tailpipe emissions in the Portland region, Metro News is digging into some of the 144 ideas under study. Our goal is to paint a picture of what the Portland region could look like if any of those scenarios are adopted.
Please note that Metro planning staff is not responsible for this content. Comments on the content should be directed to Metro News at 503-813-7583 or [email protected].
More than three decades ago, in the height of the 1970s energy crisis, President Ford approved a law requiring U.S. cars to average 27.5 miles per gallon by the late 1980s. It put an end to the era of classic cars, gas guzzlers that were primed for beauty but not fuel efficiency. That fleet-wide requirement has since risen to 36.6 mpg by 2017, and last summer President Obama issued new rules that require U.S. cars to average 54.5 mpg by 2025.
That's an important number for Metro researchers, as they try to address a state mandate to reduce tailpipe emissions in the Portland region. Some are wondering if cars, pickups and SUVs in the region can even top that, averaging close to 69 mpg by 2035. Put another way, a car with that kind of fuel efficiency would burn less than four tablespoons of gas each mile. But is it a feasible goal?
Giorgio Rizzoni, director of the Ohio State Center for Automotive Research, thinks so.
Fuel sipping
See how some cars compare in fuel efficiency, and compare that to the benchmarks Metro is studying
"The auto industry is pushed by the national fuel efficiency standards," Rizzoni said."The competition to exceed these standards and to create the perfect hybrid vehicle drives major car manufacturers to work fast."
Aside from the standard hybrid and electric car models, Rizzoni said new efficiency-boosting ideas have kept engineers ahead of the game. From building cars with more than just six gears to developing newer engines fueled by compressed natural gas, the options are constantly expanding.
To eventually get big gains in fuel efficiency, Rizzoni said, a national shift towards a European model may have to occur.
"Just look at Europe, everyone is driving fuel-efficient cars," he said. "And you know why? Look at those gas prices! If our prices were as high as theirs, we'd be in the same spot."
Metro is looking at fuel efficiency as one of the ways to address a state mandate to reduce tailpipe emissions in the Portland region. A study as part of the Climate Smart Scenarios project suggested Metro could study whether it would be possible for the region's cars to average as much as 69 mpg in 2035, with pickups and SUVs averaging 48 mpg.
Rizzoni said those targets are ambitious.
"Aiming for 50 mpg in all cars by 2035 is a little more feasible than 69," he said.
How would that happen?
Kim Ellis, the Metro's lead planner working on tailpipe emissions, said the regional government could advocate for change through its legislative agenda, both at the state and federal level.
Metro staffers say electric cars will could a big difference in pushing the region's fuel efficiency up. That could involve plugging in more electric vehicle charging stations, issuing tax credits for consumers and businesses who buy electric cars and working on pilot projects to find new ways to make electric cars practical and useful.
One local expert thinks that Metro has little chance of creating a mandate, even at the state level, over regional fuel efficiency. George Beard, a Portland State University professor with a background in electric vehicle and transportation policy, said that he's doubtful of Metro's power to drive market changes.
"There's a big difference between citizens and consumers. Metro can play an influential role in changing the minds of citizens, but when it comes to consumers, I'm far less confident," Beard said.
While he thinks the Portland region can set an example in greenhouse-gas emission reduction for other cities, Beard said that what reductions occur in Portland alone won't make that big of an impact on a global scale.
Additionally, Beard said that Metro's timeline is a long shot.
"Social adoption gets measured in decades. It took more than 30 years for people to adapt to light rail in the region," Beard said. "If we want to see significant change by 2035, we better turn up the volume. It's important that we try."