Members of the Metro Policy Advisory Committee gathered at the Oregon Zoo last Friday to discuss assumptions about the jobs and households that will populate this region during the next 20 years and what those assumptions mean for the region's land supply. MPAC members also began what will be a lengthier discussion about how best to reduce greenhouse gas pollution through the Regional Transportation Plan.
The purpose of the retreat was for Metro Councilors and staff to receive feedback from MPAC members on the assumptions contained in the urban growth report (an analysis of the capacity of the current urban growth boundary to accommodate the growth in jobs and housing forecast for the next 20 years) and their guidance on how best to achieve several performance targets outlined for the region's transportation system.
On the issue of future housing growth, the committee accepted Metro staffs' assumption that there is the potential to accommodate all of the region's housing needs without expanding the urban growth boundary and without changing existing zoning, but only if new policies and investments that will help accommodate that growth are adopted by local governments. Based on current policies and investments, Metro's analysis shows the region would need to expand the urban growth boundary.
With regard to the need for additional employment land, the committee discussed whether Metro's assumption of a need to accommodate an additional 200 to 800 acres within the boundary for future large-lot industrial developments (50 to 100 acres in size) is adequate. Hillsboro Mayor Jerry Willey argued that it is not, citing that in the past two years his city has received 18 inquiries from different companies looking to locate there, many on 50 acres or more. "We have to be ready for employment to come to this region over the next 20 years," he stressed.
Portland Mayor Sam Adams countered that the region's ability to accommodate large-lot employment land wasn't a question of whether to expand or not expand the urban growth boundary. Adams noted his city's efforts to redevelop existing sites to attract new employers, including a new manufacturer for car batteries. "It's about availability of land," he said. "We can all assume some effort will be made on large lot needs within [the boundary] rather than expansion."
Adams noted that cleaning up existing brownfield sites should be a central focus of the region's employment lands strategy. "I want to underscore that polluted lands – both [lot] assembly and cleanup – is part of this equation."
Willey countered that he supports brownfield cleanup and other innovative approaches to making employment lands available within the existing boundary, but noted that employers seeking to locate in an area often need land available quickly. "If you can't answer the question when the inquiry comes, the conversation is done," he said.
A subcommittee of MPAC will meet during the week of Oct. 26 to help Metro determine how best to meet future needs for additional large-lot industrial parcels while protecting farm and forest land currently outside of the urban growth boundary.
The group also gave guidance to Metro about how the Regional Transportation Plan can best meet state and regional targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and other performance targets for transportation projects that have been endorsed by the Joint Policy Advisory Committee on Transportation. Last fall Metro analyzed several future scenarios that tested the effects of different policy choices on greenhouse gas pollution, reduced vehicle miles traveled, increased walking and bicycling trips, and other indicators. All of those scenarios illustrated that the proposed plan falls short in meeting current pollution reduction targets.
Sherwood Mayor Keith Mays expressed concerns about setting targets that the region is not currently equipped to reach. Richard Whitman, the director of the Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development, noted that reducing total vehicle miles traveled will be necessary to achieve a 40 percent reduction in greenhouse gas pollution from transportation-related sources by 2035.
At its Oct. 28 meeting MPAC will shift its focus to housing affordability and investments to accommodate future growth by making the most of the region's existing urban land. At that meeting, the committee also will discuss some proposed refinements to the region's transportation-related performance targets.