The "Middle Third"
In the past, Metro planners and analysts have picked a precise number for their projections of future growth in the Portland region. Last year, though, Metro decided to give policymakers a so-called range forecast, a broader look at how much growth was likely to occur.
The range said planners were 90 percent sure the region would need between 27,400 and 79,300 new housing units. Former Metro Chief Operating Officer Michael Jordan, in turn, suggested that policymakers focus their planning efforts on the "middle third" of that forecast range.
That would mean the region would need between 47,100 and 59,100 new houses, apartments and condos in the next 20 years.
Of course, the urban growth boundary won't be expanding to accommodate 50,000 new homes. Land for the vast majority of those homes could be found inside the current urban growth boundary.
That projection is based, in part, on how many new jobs the region can expect to add. Again, planners put forth a range forecast – the region could see job growth stalled, or it could gain a bunch really quickly.
It's up to the Metro Council to decide exactly how much growth to plan for, and how much land to add to the urban growth boundary to accommodate future growth. Whatever the council chooses, it will be subject to review by the Oregon Land Conservation and Development Commission.
Metro Councilors are likely to open discussions about the urban growth boundary by saying the region needs room for about 15,000 more housing units.
That was the message councilors gave to staff at a Thursday work session to discuss this autumn's urban growth boundary expansion decision.
The council is set to decide whether to expand the urban growth boundary on Oct. 20; they'll also decide how much to expand it. But first, they have to estimate how many new homes the region needs over the next 20 years.
Metro didn't pull a number out of a hat. Last year, staff released a report saying that, with a 90 percent certainty, the region would need between 27,400 and 79,300 new houses, apartments and condos during the next 20 years.
That leaves the Metro Council to settle on one question – how much of the remaining need should be addressed by an urban growth boundary expansion?
Thursday's work session was scheduled to address a legal technicality in the discussion. Metro staff has to draft an ordinance for the council to consider on Oct. 20. By having a number in the ordinance – even if it's a draft starting point – saying how many new homes the region needs, it gives stakeholders an idea how to frame their arguments regarding any proposed boundary expansion.
The Metro Council can amend the ordinance and change the number based on feedback before its October vote.
Politics come into play as well.
"If you start low and work yourself up, you get to a lower place than if you start high and work yourself down to a majority," said Councilor Carl Hosticka.
Councilor Rex Burkholder said the state of the economy suggested prudence with the boundary expansion.
"It seems like the news is always drearier than it seemed to be in the previous month," he said.
In the end, councilors indicated they supported drafting an ordinance that called for the addition of land for 15,000 homes to the urban growth boundary. That is the number at the low end of the middle-third of the forecast range.
Councilors also said they would consider timely requests from cities to look at areas, besides those already highlighted by staff, for urban growth boundary expansion. Some cities and property owners have asked for boundary expansions in areas not identified by staff as prime targets.
If a majority of the council asks for an area to be considered, and a neighboring government is in favor of expanding into a given area, households in and around that area will receive a notice that their land (or land near them) is being considered for an urban growth boundary expansion.
Metro would have to be notified of possible additional candidates for boundary expansions by Aug. 18. Public hearings on the urban growth boundary review are scheduled for Oct. 6 at the Beaverton Library and Oct. 20 at the Metro Regional Center.