Up front cost difference estimated to be $37 million for the region
PORTLAND – Establishing frequent bus service to Lake Oswego could be cheaper than building a streetcar, but probably won’t spark increased development along the proposed transit corridor, Metro councilors were told Tuesday.
In a worksession briefing about the Lake Oswego to Portland Transit Project in advance of the release of the project’s draft environmental report, staff members presented the six councilors with projections for ridership, cost and development spurred by construction of a transit project.
The study comes in the wake of a 1990s-era study by the Oregon Department of Transportation, saying that it’s not feasible to widen Highway 43 between inner Southwest Portland and downtown Lake Oswego.
“When we say ‘not feasible,’ what is meant is that there are cliffs on one side of the road, high rock walls on the other side and very expensive property on both sides,” said ODOT spokesman Brad Wurfel in an e-mail Wednesday. He said that specific cost estimates were not available, but that the both the property acquisition costs and increased rock slide risks would be very high.
About 20,000 cars a day use the three-lane road near the Willamette River.
According to the environmental report, that number could grow as jobs and homes come to the corridor – downtown Lake Oswego’s population could grow by a third between now and 2035, the report says.
Given the constraints of the existing roadway, there seemed to be little question from Metro councilors as to whether a transit corridor was needed. The $328 million question was whether the transit should come in the form of express buses or a streetcar.
An express bus service between southern Lake Oswego and downtown Portland would cost about $51 million, the report estimated, versus a $379 million low-end price tag for building a streetcar to the area. Those costs could jump as high as $458 million depending on where specifically the streetcar is constructed.
But those increased costs are nuanced. Some of the cost includes the 1998 purchase of the Willamette Shore Line. The federal government could pick up half of the cost of the project – more, if the recent situation with the Milwaukie light rail funding proves to be the exception and not the rule. That might be small consolation to taxpayers in Iowa but will likely be a factor when local officials and stakeholders decide how to proceed.
Staff projected that an express bus would cost $20 million locally to implement, versus $57 million to $83 million for the streetcar, again, depending on design.
A streetcar also costs nearly $1 million a year less to operate, although Councilor Carl Hosticka pointed out that three centuries might be a long time to wait to recover those savings.
It was the increased development potential from streetcar that intrigued Hosticka, who represents southern Washington County.
“It costs you seven times as much to build a streetcar, but you get all this development,” Hosticka said. “That’s what I’m wondering.”
Specifically, the transit project could open up opportunities for development in the Foothills area near downtown Lake Oswego. And the report projects construction of more than 600,000 square feet of new buildings by 2025 within a block of a transit park and ride in downtown Lake Oswego. The Johns Landing area could see 1.6 million square feet of new building space by 2025, the report says. By way of comparison, the US Bancorp Tower in downtown Portland has 1.1 million square feet of space.
Would an enhanced bus service achieve the same development goals?
Ross Roberts, a streetcar project manager for the agency, said no.
“When we applied this on the eastside streetcar loop… we didn’t really see the big boom in development through enhanced bus,” he said.
Metro transit project manager Bridget Wieghart said there’s debate on that at the federal level, as well.
“It depends on how advanced the bus is,” she said. “There is evidence that you get more with a fixed guideway.”
In an interview Wednesday, Lake Oswego Mayor Jack Hoffman said streetcar-driven private investment is a working premise of the plan.
“Will the private developers risk the investment down in Foothills if there’s no streetcar, if it’s just bus rapid transit or automobile?” Hoffman asked. “Our understanding is that construction of streetcars is the impetus to private investments and private development along the streetcar line.
Back at Tuesday’s worksession, the costs of the line continued to raise questions, particularly given the recent emphasis from Metro Chief Operating Officer Michael Jordan on ensuring that investments are, as he puts it, “deadly efficient” at attracting private capital. Jordan has been pitching that efficiency in his recent discussions about the proposed Community Investment Strategy.
Councilor Rex Burkholder, who represents northern Portland, was skeptical of the costs associated with the southern extension of the line.
“This one for me, personally, needs some more arguments about what you get out of this,” he said. Part of those arguments are whether Lake Oswego is willing to commit to denser development along the streetcar corridor.
Acting Council President Carlotta Collette, whose Clackamas County district includes Lake Oswego, suggested development agreements might help bring about the kind of densities a streetcar investment is supposed to attract.
“We can at least affirm that we want to see the focused investments we’ve been talking about,” she said.
This story was not subject to the approval of Metro staff or elected officials.