Plans to reduce tailpipe emissions in the Portland region could save Metro area residents and businesses millions of dollars annually, according to the latest research from the Climate Smart Communities Scenarios Project.
The Climate Smart project, a multi-year effort to address a state mandate to reduce tailpipe emissions in the Portland region, found that the region's households in the future could save between $300 and $600 a year on gas, depending on how the region decides to address the mandate.
By 2035, regional manufacturers and shipping companies would save between $60 million and $115 million a year in reduced freight movement costs, because of a reduction in congestion on main roads.
The Climate Smart project isn't looking at curbing freight emissions, only emissions from passenger cars and trucks. The Legislature mandated Metro to come up with a plan by the end of 2014 for cutting per capita emissions from those vehicles by 20 percent before 2035.
But the scenarios the project is studying involve increasing the availability of transit, perhaps dramatically, and funding most of the planned road construction and bike and pedestrian projects around the Portland region. Also under study are ways to use technology to make the region's roads and freeways work better for drivers.
Many of those projects have no money for engineering or construction, and TriMet's financial shortfalls are well-documented.
The drumbeat from Metro leaders remains the same, and was summed up by Metro Councilor Carlotta Collette at Thursday morning's meeting of a regional transportation policy committee.
"The legislation that mandated we do it (curb emissions) also mandated we implement it," Collette said. "If they (the Legislature) want us to implement it, they're also going to have to help us pay for it."
But success in Salem could be dependent on what "it" is, and how well "it" is received at the local level in the Portland region. Metro is working with the Oregon Land Conservation and Development Commission to finalize the plan – the Legislature made LCDC the regulatory body for the project – and LCDC Commissioner Jerry Lidz said the work is going well.
But, he warned regional leaders Wednesday night at the Metro Policy Advisory Committee and again early Thursday at the Joint Policy Advisory Committee on Transportation, local communities must be on board with the project.
"We are most likely to find success in the Legislature if everybody is on the same page," Lidz said.
In theory, everybody should be. Metro used local communities' existing plans – concepts that have already gone through public review and been endorsed by city councils and county commissions – to develop the scenarios for curbing emissions.
The region's communities "all have existing plans," said Metro Council President Tom Hughes at a work session Tuesday. "Those plans all require some outside funding in order to be implemented. If they were all by themselves (lobbying for money), the chances of them getting money to implement those plans is about zilch."
But the region's cities and counties still have to prioritize those plans in order to make Climate Smart's actual implementation a success.
"It's one thing to build a list," said Lake Oswego City Councilor Donna Jordan. "It's another thing to make it happen."
A few hours earlier, Washington County Chair Andy Duyck asked Lidz about local implementation.
"You made mention about needing assurances that local governments will adopt the plans," Duyck said. "What form would that take?"
"I don't think we have an answer to that yet," Lidz said.
TriMet general manager Neil McFarlane suggested the region's approach should be two-fold, focusing both on high-level concepts and strong local refinements.
"A strong base gives us the stability to be selective about those strategies in Scenario C that help us build a strong regional economy and help us build stronger communities overall," McFarlane said.
Improving transit increasingly seems to be a significant part of the Climate Smart project. With a transit system already running but not frequently enough to be useful for many people, the region could add more bus service and shorter waits between buses without having to pay for a lot of expensive infrastructure.
Leaders are also looking at smaller, independent transit systems that complement TriMet service. One such system launched in Forest Grove earlier this year.
According to Metro, more than 80 percent of the region's households will be within a half mile of transit – a 10-minute walk – by 2035.
But two-thirds of the region's residents live outside of Portland, and a lot of the TriMet network is geared toward getting people to and from the Rose City. West Linn City Councilor Jodi Carson pointed out that a resident of her city who works in Wilsonville would have to take a bus north to Portland to get south to Wilsonville.
"If we're really looking at transit as a key part of this, I know we're saying we're looking at existing plans," Carson said at MPAC Wednesday night, "but I don't think that sort of connection with surrounding communities is part of existing plans. That will fall short of the goal."
TriMet board member Craig Prosser said the transit district is studying service around the suburbs, moving counter-clockwise from west to east.
As those studies go forward, so will Metro's Climate Smart work. Results of a study into the health and equity impacts of Climate Smart are due in January. The Metro Council has until the end of 2014 to adopt a plan to reduce the region's tailpipe emissions and send it to Salem.